The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is currently at 86.4%, remaining at a high level.

November 30th, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is currently at 86.4%, with a 13.6% probability of the rates remaining unchanged. Since the unexpected drop in U.S. initial jobless claims on November 26th, the probability of a rate cut has remained high.The probability of the Fed holding rates steady until January 2026 is 10%, with a 67% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut, and a 23% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut.The next two FOMC meeting dates for the Fed are December 10th and January 28th, 2026.